With a provincial election slowly coming closer, it seems paramount that we talk about election prospects for each provincial party in Ontario. The PCs, OLPs, and ONDPs are all on spending sprawls for the upcoming election. They all think it’s an important election, although not as important for the opposition parties as it is for Doug Ford. Ford is unpopular, among the most unpopular premiers in the country, so it is important for him that he doesn’t let his unpopularity make way for a loss in seats or even make way for a minority. As a result, Ford and the PCs are willing to go to lengths to spend as much they possibly can in order to make sure they maintain the status quo of the majority. Will he win? Probably. But will he sustain his majority? The answer will become clearer as the election looms closer.
As to why I’m confident Ford will win? Because it is statistically unlikely for Ford to lose when taking into account two things. One, there has only been one other time an incumbent premier in Ontario has lost their election after a federal incumbent has won theirs. Second, the pandemic has shown that elections generally favour the incumbent with there being only one upset where the incumbent had lost (Nova Scotia); all other premiers or PMs have either won or gotten a stronger mandate with an election during the pandemic. These two statistical anomalies alone (without even considering polling data) suggests to me that Doug Ford is here to stay for at least one more term. In addition, one term premiers are relatively rare in Ontario so I would say it is safe to say that Ford’s PCs would win based on the points I’ve outlined above.
When considering poll aggregations from 338Canada, the latest polls show that Premier Doug Ford would likely retain his government but under a minority. A weaker mandate, but still a victory. However, with the election months away, the fact that Ford is treading minority territory is a negative sign for his party (which would explain his spending sprawl on ads). For the official opposition, the Ontario Liberals would likely gain seats; with the ONDP being delegated to third place. However, note that these are only preliminary polls which could change drastically when the election campaign starts ramping up and voters start paying attention.
The other thing to consider is the opposition leaders themselves. Are they charismatic enough to garner support for when the election campaign becomes actually important? This question is easy for me to answer, I don’t think any of the party leaders (including Ford) are charismatic at all. They are all average, middle of the road candidates. Any of these leaders getting elected would change very little in the material realities of the average working person in Ontario. As a result of this, the goal for the opposition leaders then, is that they must convince voters that voting them in will cause significant change for the better. Otherwise, Ford wins by default if voters are not turned on by the opposition parties. For Ford, he has an easier path to victory; he has to appeal to his decent handling of covid and how he’s going to build back better when we are out of this pandemic. If voters become confident in Ford from these two points, then he wins. If Ford’s unpopularity bites him while a leader from the opposition party gains momentum, that could spell bad news for the PCs.
Overall, is Ford going to win? Yes. Will it be an easy win? Depends on the election campaign and leader charisma. Will Ontario change much if one leader gets elected over another? Probably not. Will it be a difficult election for all the parties? Absolutely. Is a minority the most probable outcome no matter who wins? Most likely based on current polling data.
It is worth noting however that I am only in the speculative phase of predicting who is going to win the provincial election. Nothing in this article is final, because things could change very quickly following a scandal or sudden surge in support for a particular candidate. Elections can be unpredictable, sometimes elections can be very predictable. It all depends on the data and factors we have to consider to make election predictions. But so far, the election mood and polling data suggest a PC win.