Erin O’Toole stepped down as leader of the CPC after a majority of his MPs voted to oust his leadership. With the majority of those wanting him out being hard-right social conservatives coupled in with frustrated moderate conservative MPs. The trigger for this vote? The flip-flop on supporting the infamous “Freedom Convoy” has taken Canadians for a surprise. O’Toole’s initial support of the convoy came at a time when the protests were largely reasonable, but after the disrespect the protestors showed on Parliament Hill on the National War Memorial, in addition to flying Nazi and confederate flags. O’Toole decided to denounce these protestors. The result? Being booted out of his job.
His tenure as leader seemed like that of an interim leader. Short and intermediary for whatever leader comes next. However, his time as a leader has shown that moderate conservativism has not died completely within the CPC. An attempt to be moderate is really the only way to lure moderate Liberals to vote CPC. Otherwise, any stark right-wing agitprop will scare away moderate Liberal voters as well as moderate Conservative voters.
The favourite to become CPC leader is Pierre Poilievre. The finance critic/attack dog of the CPC shadow cabinet. He is bilingual and already has a sizeable online presence among voters who are somewhat interested in Canadian politics. He is quite popular among conservative MPs and conservative voters. Even PPC voters have taken to a liking to him as well. His quick wittiness when debating and being able to score potshots at the opposition is quite good as well. But his overall policy positions are still relatively unclear. He espouses reducing red tape and minimizing the role of government, however, what that exactly means in regards to industry and the economy is still unclear. His stance on abortion is pro-choice but would allow a free vote on anti-abortion legislation if the CPC MPs desired it. Furthermore, he is welcoming of LGBTQ+ Canadians.
Pierre’s stances on lockdowns are quite obvious, he claims that he supports the “freedom” of Canadians so is likely to be anti-lockdown (as long as he is in opposition that is). Mr PP is the favourite and I fully predict that he will win the leadership race. What that exactly means for voters is another problem to address. Moderate Canadians would likely see Pierre as a Trump-style anti-lib politician, this style of politics may very well turn off red tories and moderates liberals voters. Causing them to run to the more reasonable and business as usual LPC.
Other right-wing candidates like Leslyn Lewis can be crossed out as the next leader due to her stances on being anti-abortion as well as her anti-vax rhetoric. Any anti-abortion or anti-vax rhetoric will be hammered by the LPC, NDP, and BLQ. The majority of Canadians (90%) believe in safe, legal, and accessible abortion and the percentage of Canadians who are vaccinated is also around 90%. Choosing Lewis as the leader will only alienate moderate conservatives to vote LPC due to these harsh stances.
Peter Mackay/Micheal Chong are the moderate candidates to represent the CPC. Their politics is reminiscent of red tory Bryan Mulroney style politics. Where the term “progressive” within Progressive Conservative is vital to their social policies. With an utter rejection of social regressivsim, the moderate Mackay and Chong would surely resonate with the majority of Canadians who are in fact socially progressive. In addition, both of these candidates would also support abortion and the LGBTQ+ community with full arms (ignoring half of the CPC that does not support these issues). However, this method of leading would risk an O’Toole 2.0 where the moderate policies proposed by these two candidates would not be sufficient enough for Canadians in suburban cities to vote for them. However, their position on gun control, healthcare cuts and privatization of industry are still unknown for voters. Accepting any of these factors will make it difficult for urban and suburban voters to vote for even the moderate candidate.
Other issues like the division within the CPC will still exist if either leadership comes into power. Some analysts and journalists are calling and/or predicting a split within the CPC. Specifically, the socially conservative side of the CPC cut away from the moderate conservatives who are delegates of the PC party. However, this split may forever strip the conservatives from ever governing federally again due to the split effectively cutting the number of seats of the party by half. One half comprises of the hard right-wing part of the party while the other half comprises of the moderate conservatives. With a split within the right-wing parties of this country, neither conservative party will hope to gain enough seats to beat the Liberals.
So then what’s in store for the future of the CPC? A split? or newfound unity? Both of these possibilities are highly likely. Will the conservative party be able to recover after the next leader? Or will the next leader go out like Harper, Scheer, and O’Toole? One thing is for sure though, the future of the CPC will be a tough one before it gets better for them. A lot of baggage, disunity, and policy changes have to be made before the CPC is an actual alternative to the Liberals in seat rich Toronto, Montreal, or Vancouver; where the election actually takes place. As O’Toole has put it, too far deviation from centrist conservatism will make the CPC the NDP of the right. A party that most Canadians don’t take seriously and a party that has no hope of winning in the eyes of Canadians. That is the biggest warning message that O’Toole has left for the CPC.
Whether the CPC takes his advice is another question. And whether the CPC has what it takes to convince the average Canadian to vote for them is likely to get harder as time goes with more leaders losing to Trudeau and the party further placing itself as a hard right-wing party rather than a centre-right party. These two factors could potentially go very wrong for the CPC in the next election. A hard turn to the right could alienate sceptical conservative voters to just vote the business as usual Liberals. In addition to Canadians being very distrustful and disgusted at American style politics (which conservatives MPs and delegates are attempting to do), what you have could be a recipe for disaster for the CPC.
Overall, the CPC’s future is uncertain but it could still be saved with the right decisions. At the same time, the CPC could just as easily be washed away with any hard misstep as we’re seeing right now. Only time will tell for which future comes true.
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