Every winter there seems to be a new variant that ends up taking the world by storm. The discovery of a new variant instils fear upon the citizens of the world. Scientists prepare and warn public health authorities and governments seem to always flop the response even when warned weeks in advance. This variant is no exception to this story. However, this new variant seems to be a special one compared to the others. To me, COVID variants Alpha, Delta, Gamma, and Beta all seemed to be slightly more transmissible than the original Wuhan variant and perhaps slightly more deadly. With Omicron, the jump in the transmission ability is the biggest one we’ve seen yet. The contagiousness of Omicron is akin to that of Measles, with some epidemiologists stating that Omicron is the second most contagious virus we have ever seen right behind the infamous Measles virus.
However, the difference between Measles and Omicron is a small one. To explain, we can examine the R0 value of the two diseases. The R0 value represents how contagious a disease is, as in how fast it can reproduce by infecting new people in a population assuming no immunity or restrictions to mitigate the spread of the disease. The R0 value of Measles is anywhere from 15-18. In comparison, the R0 value of Omicron is around 15. In other words, if Omicron infects one person; then it will - on average- infect 15 other people. Meaning that the contagiousness of both these infections is comparable. But even though Omicron is highly contagious, many people believe hospitaliations and ICU admssions should be stable due to Omicron being “mild” right? Wrong. Dead wrong.
According to Dr Eric Feigl-Ding and many other doctors, an increase in hospitalizations and ICU admission is assumed rather than preventable. With a disease as contagious as Omicron, any amount of “mildness” when compared to the Delta variant is nullified simply due to the sheer number of infections that will be produced due to Omicron. For instance, - assuming equivalent demographics - imagine a scenario where Delta was to infect 1000 people and 50 people were to have severe disease. Even assuming Omicron has 50% less chance of admitting someone to a hospital, Omicron can easily infect more than twice the amount of total people (look UK, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Australia) and thus the number of hospital admissions would increase due to the increase in total infections (compared to Delta).
And looking at the hospitalizations across various countries. Indeed, what I have said above is true. The UK is seeing a massive increase in hospitalization that are even faster than what previous forecasts predicted would happen with Omicron. Some states in the US are seeing similar increases in hospitalizations where Omicron has become the dominant force (New York, Florida). Canada is seeing similar increases in hospitalizations (look Quebec and Ontario). In Ontario, nearly 1000 Ontarians are hospitalized with Covid-19 and 200 are in ICU - which is an increase compared to an average ICU admission of 179 a week before. If these trends continue accross the Canada, US, and the UK; it is likely that most other developed countries will follow suite. Total covid hospital and ICU admissions will universally go up, and all will be dealing with a punishing wave.
Total case counts - while not the best metric to gauge the handling the pandemic - are increasing to unsustainable levels across the western hemisphere. The UK is seeing a record 200k+ cases of covid a day. For comparison, the largest wave in the UK previously caused by the Delta variant hit only 60k+ cases a day. The US is seeing similar increases of covid - over 500k cases a day compared to 250k cases in the previous largest wave. Denmark - which has a population of 5 million - is seeing 20k+ cases a day with the previous largest wave hitting only 4k+ cases. Other countries such as Portugal, France, Greece, Germany, Italy, and even Australia are seeing record cases of covid never before seen in the pandemic. If cases are ever an indicator, record breaking cases of a virus that has plagued this planet for over 2 years that has killed millions of people is never a good sign for any country. The lesson for these countries? Learn from your past, adapt, and prepare.
In addition, healthcare workers are burnt out. Nurses, doctors, and healthcare staff are increasingly becoming tired of bearing the brunt of taking care of patients who refuse to get vaccinated. Many of them are leaving the job to work in other sectors, thus leading to worker shortages in healthcare across the world. Increases in hospitalizations and ICU admissions with insufficient healthcare workers is a recipe for disaster. I lay no blame on burnt out healthcare workers who have served their people in this pandemic. If they choose to leave, then so be it. Nevertheless, for the healthcare workers who remain and find the courage in their hearts to continue serving. You must prepare both mentally and physically for the worst in the next couple of weeks.
Looking at future forecasts for any statistic on Omicron. Be it cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, or deaths. The next couple of weeks is looking to be very grim for the NA/EU prefecture.