As we nearly enter the second month of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. One sits back to consider the length of how long this war will last; and what long-term ramifications this war will besiege the people of Ukraine and Russia. For either side, the most obvious losers are going to be the citizens of both countries that have happened to become the victims of the crossfire that Putin has initiated. Either side is not letting up, Putin seems to have full intention to invade, conquer, and control key areas in Eastern Ukraine for resources (oil. water, and exports), Russian territorial expansions, and an attempt to strategically expand Russian security and influence in the general area and Europe. For Putin, he’s bet all his hands on this operation going successfully; and for Ukraine, their hands are full with trying to stop Putin’s vision.
Now the obvious question for anybody that reads this is… Who’s winning the war? Are the Russians really struggling as Western media is portraying or are we simply downplaying the full potential capabilities that the Russians can ensue on Ukraine if they really wanted to? The problem with analyzing war is that every side in a war will engage in wartime propaganda to give the impression to their people that “their side” is winning. The media, intelligence agencies, state departments as well as government administrations will cater to the interests their own. Engaging in a thoughtful, good-faith analysis of war (at least when publicly sharing info) based on verified analysis of the full capabilities and potentials of Ukraine and Russia just doesn’t seem to be shared in public discourse. My biggest concern is that downplaying Russia will do a few negative things for Ukraine. (1) An overly negative outlook on Russia’s performance in Ukraine may force Putin to use more brutal force in the invasion and (2) hyping up Ukraine for its capabilities and bravery in fighting may in turn prolong this war and thus increase the total death and destabilization the citizens will face in the long-term. On the other hand, however, Ukrainians have the full right to fight for their sovereignty against an invading power. And their wish to “beat” Russia by forcing them to retreat from this war is a noble goal. But Ukrainians must understand that “beating them’ means engaging and prolonging the war. Which will likely cause more death and destabilization for the people in the end. It is quite a predicament for Ukraine here.
The goal for the US, Canada, the UK, and other NATO allies is not to only just fund, provide military equipment, and defence capabilities to Ukraine. But they should also actively be involved with the best possible solution to ending this war through peace negotiations. Prolonging war by playing the role of instigator by providing weapons, equipment, and military funding packages is no good for Ukrainians. According to the BBC, Western Officials are sustaining military support for Ukraine "through a prolonged period of conflict….perhaps much of the rest of this year". In addition, public servants, intelligence analysts, and politicians have already estimated that this war could last until next year if not more. For the Americas and Europe, a fight for defending and funding our Ukrainian allies indirectly will prolong the war and fuel more violence for the whole duration of this war. As a result, a prolonged war would further destabilize, radicalize, and destroy Ukraine to unprecedented degrees. The result? Ukraine will become a shell of what it formerly once was.
The Outcome of Two Cities: Mariupol and Kyiv
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What I fear most of what may become of Ukraine is the potential for more cities to be completely levelled and flattened just as Mariupol was from discriminate and indiscriminate bombings, shellings, and boots on the ground warfare. The Kharkiv and Donetsk regions seem to be next in Russia’s target for shellings and invasion efforts. Controlling these key areas allows for much of the rich natural resources that the Eastern region has to be under Russian control, including a trillion barrels of oil reserves and Ukraine’s main water supply lines that are located in the east. Other resources that Ukraine exports in abundance such as natural oils, corn, and wheat will be substantially cut from Ukraine’s economic output and revenues if Russia were to seize and control the Eastern region.
However, it isn’t all doom and gloom for Ukraine. Russia retreating from the North-Western region of Ukraine away from Kyiv signals an opportunity for Ukrainian forces. Controlling Kyiv and its surrounding areas are vital for distributing goods, supplies, military equipment, and any other objects that NATO allies have given to Ukraine. Having the Kyiv region under control means that Ukraine can streamline their supply chains more efficiently from the West to the East with Kyiv being the central hub for distributing supplies. Based on what is militarily required in the differing Eastern regions of Ukraine (South-Eastern Ukraine, Kharkiv, and the Donbas region are the most important to defend), having a steady, uninterrupted supply of resources and equipment will be very beneficial for Eastern Ukrainian forces to neutralise, stall, or drive back invading Russian forces. However, the risk of Russian interception of these supply routes cannot be underestimated. Russian forces will make it a priority to focus on where they can determine supplies are coming from and will subsequently attempt to militarily intercept, shell, or even strategically bomb supply route infrastructure and personnel. Of course, the risk of tactical nuclear strikes that are currently positioned near the borders of Belarus allows for Putin to technically be able to nuke Kyiv or any other notable city for Russian military interests anytime he wants. This essentially puts the Ukrainian capital and any other city within the strike range of the tactical nuclear weapons hostage under Putin’s discretion. All in all, this situation is bad for Russia on all fronts but is especially bad for Ukraine when considering the war’s overall long-term impacts.
What are the solutions? What can Ukraine and Russia do in order to achieve peace and a permanent cease-fire? First and foremost, most if not all wars end with some sort of agreement between the opposing sides (see WW1 and WW2). Much of these agreements can be one-sided, some can be fair, and others can be completely destructive to one country. Nevertheless, some sort of agreement that both countries can agree on is the only real way to stop this war from further unnecessary bloodshed.
In my mind, there need to be three main clauses made between Russia and Ukraine: First, Russian language rights in Ukraine (Russian is already the main second language in the country, and in certain areas the primary language). Second and most important for Russia; is full recognition of Crimea under Russian territory (this is a first-level starter for Russia. Without Crimean recognition to be Russian territory, Russia will not agree to any peace agreement). Thirdly, the concession of the Donbas region and areas that are currently under Russian paramilitary control as Russian or independent territories (specifically areas of Ukrainian oil reserves, export hubs, water, and oil supply pipelines).
These three things seem to be the main concessions that Russia is looking for in Ukraine. However, these concessions are up to Ukrainians and the Ukrainian government to agree with. I have no right to determine whether or not this is a just agreement but it is a start (P.S. I’m not the only one who has made this analysis). However, I do fear that if Ukraine is not willing to meet these concessions, then the war will simply be prolonged until Ukraine is forced to and has suffered unprecedented death and destruction. On the other hand, Putin knows that any concessions that go beyond the ones that I listed will likely end up stalling the war from resistant Ukrainians and further impact Russia negatively economically if they are too greedy with their negotiations. All in all, my heart and mind go to the Ukrainians and Russians who are the unfortunate victims of Putin’s crazy war.