The conservatives lost the 2015 election quite handily by Justin Trudeau. In 2019, after numerous scandals against Trudeau (SNC Lavalin, Blackface), the conservatives thought that they could potentially topple Trudeau. It didn't happen. The Conservatives underperformed, and the Liberals had a strong minority. During the early waves of the pandemic, Trudeau essentially governed like he was in a majority government. New government spending that hadn’t been seen in Canadian history since the World Wars, daily briefings by the Liberal government and Trudeau, and going as far as threatening the other parties that he would call an election if parliament was even slightly off his agenda. Trudeau had and has power, and he isn’t afraid to use it.
Enter Erin O’Toole, the centrist Conservative. Things didn’t go too well for him in the beginning of his leadership. But to be fair, if there was ever a time to have an introduction as a party leader; doing it in the middle of the pandemic when the incumbent is likely to steal the spotlight is simply not a good idea. Alas, his introduction wasn’t bad, but it was good either. Middle of the road I’ll say.
But Erin O’Toole showed resilience, being able to tighten the polls when everyone assumed Trudeau would win a majority and having a pretty solid campaign early on. Running to centre against a Canada looking for more centralized action by the government was a smart move by Erin O’Toole. Especially so when a pandemic is going on. He sounds kind, has a great smile (just look at the picture of this article), and isn't as aggressive as some of the previous Conservative leaders (ahem - Scheer). O’Toole has likely moved Canada more leftward politically - as the Liberals want to differentiate themselves from the Cons and move leftward even further when Conservatives run to the centre. Like a sliding scale almost.
But unfortunately, the centrist experiment didn't work. Bleeding support from the right and left by the polarizing PPC and a more progressive Liberal party drowned O’Toole’s centrist intentions. As a result, the 2021 election has only maintained the status quo. And now, the Conservatives are in a tough place. Do they get a new leader? Do they keep O’Toole? Either choice is less than ideal for the Conservatives. Either they run a new experiment with some other leader or build on what O’Toole has established as a centrist Conservative. To me, the second option seems safer, but that’s up to the Conservative causes and bureaucrats to decide. But if you’re a Liberal/NDP voter, O’Toole is probably the Conservative leader you want as an oppostion. A centrist old man who attempts to be socially progressive but isn’t as of a lunatic as Andrew Scheer or Pierre Poillievre economically. Not bad for a Conservative leader if you ask me.
Unfortunately, this experiment has given Trudeau another mandate and hasn’t changed the position of the Conservative party in parliament either. The future for the Cons is looking a little bleak but I wouldn’t give up hope. A single scandal by the Liberals or a charismatic Conservative leader could topple the current juggernaut that is the Liberal party. I mean, that’s what it’s historically taken to take down the Liberals (Martin/Chretien).